University of Canterbury (UC) Mathematicians Associate Professor Alex James and Professor Michael Plank, and UC BSc Hons graduate Nic Steyn are part of a research team that has been working on building SEIR-type models for Covid-19 for several weeks; one of several groups providing statistical modelling of Covid-19 for the government.
In a recent RNZ article, Associate Professor James explains:
The mathematical modelling of a disease such as coronavirus is not about precise predictions.
“We’re not always trying to predict exact numbers,” says Alex. “We’re often thinking ‘in two weeks‘ time is it going to be going up? Is it still going to be going up? Is it going to be going down?’ It’s more general questions like that rather than what will the number exactly be.”